Bihar Assembly Election 2025 : As Bihar heads toward a high-stakes assembly election in October–November 2025, political buzz is growing louder across the state. On one side, the ruling NDA, led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, is preparing to defend its position, while the opposition Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance), spearheaded by Tejashwi Yadav, is aiming to reclaim power. Amidst the swirling speculations, a fresh opinion poll by Poll Tracker has brought clarity to the political forecast—and it could spell major change.
Opinion Poll Predicts Edge for Mahagathbandhan
Conducted between March 15 and June 5, 2025, the opinion poll surveyed over 500,000 respondents across Bihar’s districts. The findings reveal a tilt toward the Mahagathbandhan, which is projected to secure 44.2% vote share, translating to approximately 126 seats. With 122 seats required to form a majority in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, the Grand Alliance seems well-positioned to form the next government.
In contrast, the ruling NDA alliance is expected to fall short, with projections of around 112 seats. If this prediction holds true, it could mark a significant power shift in the state and a personal setback for Nitish Kumar, who has been a dominant face in Bihar politics for nearly two decades.
Prashant Kishor’s Debut Fails to Impress
The much-hyped entry of political strategist-turned-leader Prashant Kishor also finds a mention in the survey. His newly formed Jan Suraaj Party, launched on October 2, 2024, with an ambitious promise to contest all 243 assembly constituencies, appears to have failed to capture the public’s imagination.
According to the poll, Jan Suraaj is projected to garner only 2.7% of the total vote share and may end up winning just a single seat. Despite being marketed as “Bihar’s new alternative,” the party hasn’t resonated with voters at the grassroots level so far.
Rahul Gandhi Beats Modi Among Bihar’s Youth
One of the most eye-catching insights from the survey is the changing preference among young voters. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has emerged as the top choice among Bihar’s youth, with 47% of respondents aged 18–30 favoring him as their leader. Prime Minister Narendra Modi trailed behind with 39% support among the same demographic.
This generational shift could play a crucial role in shaping Congress’s role in the state. Traditionally seen as a supporting partner in the Mahagathbandhan, the growing youth backing may embolden the Congress to demand a greater share in both tickets and political leadership within the alliance.
Months to Go, But Signals Are Clear
While this is just an opinion poll and elections are still four to five months away, the indicators are worth noting. Bihar’s political dynamics have a history of dramatic shifts, and such a time frame can change the game for any political outfit.
Still, with anti-incumbency, youth dissatisfaction, and a consolidated opposition, the ruling NDA appears to have an uphill task ahead. On the other hand, Mahagathbandhan will need to maintain unity and momentum in the run-up to polling day.
What to Watch Next
- Will Nitish Kumar’s NDA craft a comeback narrative in the coming months?
- Can Tejashwi Yadav translate this poll lead into actual votes on the ground?
- Will Prashant Kishor revise his strategy to stay relevant in Bihar’s political theatre?
- Most importantly, can Rahul Gandhi and the Congress convert rising popularity among youth into tangible electoral gains?
As the clock ticks toward election day, all eyes remain on Bihar’s political battlefield. One thing is certain—Bihar Election 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched and potentially transformative contests in the state’s history.
