India Surpasses Pakistan in Nuclear Arsenal: In a revealing insight into global nuclear trends, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has released its 2025 Yearbook, showing that India now possesses more nuclear warheads than Pakistan and is steadily catching up in technological advancements with China. The report paints a complex picture of growing regional tensions and military modernisation across Asia, especially within the nuclear-armed trio of India, Pakistan, and China.
India’s Nuclear Stockpile Grows
As of January 2025, India holds 180 nuclear warheads, marginally higher than Pakistan’s estimated 170. This reflects a modest yet consistent expansion of India’s nuclear arsenal over the past year. China, meanwhile, continues to dominate the region with 600 warheads, over three times India’s count, including 24 deployed warheads ready for use.
The report notes that India’s strategic posture has become more assertive, with a visible investment in new nuclear delivery systems. A significant development is the introduction of canisterised missiles, which allow warheads to be mated with missiles during peacetime. This shift could mark a departure from India’s long-standing practice of storing warheads separately from their launchers—signalling a step toward quicker deployment readiness.
Strengthening the Nuclear Triad
India’s nuclear forces are now supported by a maturing nuclear triad—comprising aircraft, land-based missiles, and nuclear-powered submarines armed with ballistic missiles (SSBNs). The SIPRI report states this robust system enhances second-strike capability and bolsters India’s position as a credible nuclear deterrent force in South Asia.
The integration of sea-based deterrence, in particular, adds a new layer of security against potential pre-emptive strikes, allowing India to maintain strategic stability amid growing regional hostility.
Canisterised Missiles and Multiple Warheads
India’s development of canisterised missiles with potential for Multiple Independently targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs) is a crucial upgrade. These missiles, once operational, may be able to carry multiple warheads aimed at different targets, significantly increasing India’s deterrent capability. Currently, only major powers like the US, Russia, and France have successfully deployed such systems, with China also having joined the ranks in recent years.
According to SIPRI, India, Pakistan, and North Korea are actively pursuing MIRV capabilities, underscoring a broader trend of rapid missile modernisation among emerging nuclear states.
Pakistan’s Parallel Development
While India makes strides, Pakistan is also engaged in an aggressive upgrade of its delivery systems. The report suggests Pakistan is accumulating more fissile material, signaling a potential expansion of its warhead stockpile in the coming decade. SIPRI warns that the subcontinent remains a flashpoint where even a minor escalation can spiral into a nuclear crisis.
This concern was highlighted in the report’s brief reference to Operation Sindoor, a hypothetical scenario or classified Indian military initiative involving strikes on nuclear-linked infrastructure. “The combination of strikes on nuclear-related military infrastructure and third-party disinformation risked turning a conventional conflict into a nuclear crisis,” said Matt Korda, Senior Associate at SIPRI.
The China Factor
Although Pakistan continues to be the primary focus of India’s nuclear deterrence, SIPRI suggests a shift in India’s strategic doctrine. New missile systems with extended ranges indicate that India is increasingly targeting China in its planning, especially in light of ongoing border tensions and China’s own rapid nuclear expansion.
China’s 600 nuclear warheads reflect a steep upward curve in its arsenal. Despite having only 24 deployed warheads, Beijing’s advancements in hypersonic glide vehicles, multiple warhead systems, and a growing fleet of nuclear submarines point to a long-term strategic buildup.
Global Nuclear Trends
The SIPRI Yearbook provides a broader context as well. The world remains under the looming shadow of the two largest nuclear powers—Russia with 5,459 nuclear warheads and the United States with 5,177, though many of these are retired or awaiting dismantlement. Together, they possess over 90% of the world’s nuclear arsenal.
The report also notes that five nuclear-armed states—Russia, China, India, Pakistan, and North Korea—now deploy dual-capable missiles, capable of carrying either conventional or nuclear payloads. This blurred line between conventional and nuclear weaponry increases the risk of miscalculation during a crisis.
India Among Top Arms Importers
India’s growing military capability isn’t limited to its nuclear stockpile. SIPRI data from 2020–2024 shows India as the world’s second-largest arms importer, behind only Ukraine. Along with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, these five nations accounted for 35% of total global arms imports, highlighting the region’s strategic volatility.
A Cautious Shift in Nuclear Posture
While India remains officially committed to its No First Use (NFU) policy, SIPRI’s findings indicate that New Delhi may be quietly moving towards a more flexible nuclear posture. The capability to launch nuclear weapons swiftly during a conflict, without prolonged preparation, signals a readiness that could act as both a deterrent and a potential escalation trigger.
The transition to canisterised and sea-based systems reflects a desire to shorten reaction time and boost survivability, especially amid the complex trilateral dynamic with Pakistan and China.
Conclusion
The SIPRI 2025 Yearbook presents a sobering picture of South Asia’s evolving nuclear landscape. With India overtaking Pakistan in warhead count and increasingly focusing on longer-range, technologically advanced systems aimed at deterring China, the region is entering a new phase of strategic competition.
As nuclear doctrines shift, missile capabilities modernise, and arms imports rise, the need for diplomatic engagement and arms control becomes more urgent than ever. The world watches closely, knowing that in the dense fog of military preparedness, even a spark could prove catastrophic.
