June 24, 2025 | New York — Despite rising tensions in the Middle East following a U.S. airstrike on Iran and a retaliatory missile attack on a U.S. base in Qatar, global financial markets remained surprisingly calm, even optimistic. Stock indexes climbed, crude oil prices fell, and investors continued to show confidence in U.S. tech and equities.
U.S. oil prices, which initially surged in Sunday-night trading on fears of a broader regional conflict, reversed sharply by Monday afternoon—dropping nearly 5%. Brent crude, the international benchmark, held steady around $77 per barrel, reflecting a broader market sentiment that the worst-case energy disruption scenarios may not yet be in play.
Why the Calm? Traders Betting on Contained Conflict
Some analysts say that while geopolitical risks remain high, Iran’s response has so far been seen as relatively measured. Instead of targeting energy infrastructure or shipping in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global oil flows—Iran opted to strike a U.S. base in Qatar, causing limited damage and no confirmed casualties.
Markets appear to be banking on the hope that both sides will avoid actions that could rattle global energy supplies or provoke all-out war. Goldman Sachs analysts noted that while the risk of a supply disruption has increased, actual oil output remains unaffected for now.
“Markets had already priced in a fair amount of geopolitical risk,” said a senior commodities strategist at JP Morgan. “The fact that Iran hasn’t moved to close the Strait of Hormuz is why crude is correcting.”
Trump’s Message to Oil Traders
Adding to the drama, President Donald Trump took to his Truth Social account early Monday, writing:
“EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING! YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY.”
The post, a rare direct appeal to oil traders, reflects the administration’s urgency to stabilize energy markets ahead of November’s presidential election.
Stock Markets Push Higher, Treasury Yields Fall
While geopolitical headlines dominated the news cycle, Wall Street appeared to focus on domestic economic signals. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 200 points (about 0.7%), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also posted gains above 0.5% in Monday’s afternoon trading.
Meanwhile, Treasury yields dipped after Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she could back an interest rate cut in July. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 4.31%. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders now see a 22.7% probability of a July rate cut—up significantly from 14.5% just days earlier.
Investors are increasingly betting that the Fed will move to ease monetary policy amid slowing inflation and lingering global uncertainties.
Winners and Losers: Tesla Rockets, Hims & Hers Nosedives
In corporate news, Tesla shares soared more than 9% after the electric vehicle giant finally unveiled its long-anticipated robotaxi fleet over the weekend. The launch is being hailed as a major milestone in autonomous transportation, giving investors fresh confidence in Tesla’s growth trajectory.
Northern Trust also enjoyed a boost in its stock price following reports that BNY Mellon has approached the firm for a potential merger. The development could lead to one of the biggest consolidations in the banking industry this year.
But it wasn’t good news for everyone. Telehealth company Hims & Hers Health saw its shares plunge over 30% after pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk abruptly ended their partnership. The termination came amid allegations regarding Hims & Hers’ marketing practices. Interestingly, even Novo Nordisk’s U.S.-listed shares declined following the move.
Safe-Haven Assets Hold Steady
Gold prices ticked up slightly, as some investors sought safety amid the geopolitical uncertainty. The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of major currencies, remained largely flat from Friday levels.
Looking Ahead: Fragile Calm or Market Complacency?
While markets appear resilient for now, experts warn that the situation remains fluid. A single escalation—such as Iran threatening tankers in the Strait of Hormuz or Israel launching further attacks—could trigger sharp volatility.
“Markets are calm, but not because risks have disappeared,” said one investment strategist. “They’re calm because traders believe the situation is still manageable. That can change overnight.”
As the world watches for President Trump’s planned address later this week, all eyes are on whether diplomacy will gain ground—or if the conflict risks boiling over into a full-blown regional crisis.
