A groundbreaking new index is sending a clear warning to the world: climate change is not only a natural disaster threat — it’s also a financial crisis in the making. The Climate Finance (CliF) Vulnerability Index, developed by the Columbia Climate School in collaboration with the Rockefeller Foundation, has ranked 65 countries in the most dangerous ‘red zone’ by 2050 — highlighting nations that are both highly climate-vulnerable and financially underprepared to respond.
Unlike traditional climate risk metrics, the CliF Index considers not just environmental threats such as floods, droughts, cyclones, and earthquakes, but also how well a country can access financial support to recover and build resilience. This dual-lens view makes the tool a major step forward in identifying real-world risk where natural hazards and financial fragility collide.
A Wake-Up Call for Donors and Governments
Covering 188 countries, the index aims to guide decision-makers — from governments and aid organizations to donor agencies — on where support is most urgently needed. The message is clear: climate finance must be as much a priority as carbon reduction and disaster planning.
“Many of these countries are living on the edge — not just in terms of climate impact, but also in their ability to bounce back,” said Jeff Schlegelmilch, from the Columbia Climate School. “They’re in a vicious cycle — vulnerable to climate events and trapped in debt or poor financial systems that leave them unable to respond adequately.”
The 10 Countries Most at Risk by 2050
The index’s starkest revelation comes in the form of a bottom-10 list — countries consistently ranked as the most vulnerable across all four future climate scenarios projected to 2050:
- Angola
- Burundi
- The Gambia
- Guinea-Bissau
- Eritrea
- Lesotho
- Malawi
- South Sudan
- Sudan
- Zambia
These nations, all located in sub-Saharan Africa, already face development challenges, and many are burdened by high debt and poor access to climate finance. Now, they are at the frontline of a growing climate disaster without the tools to shield their populations.
A Wider Global Threat
While sub-Saharan Africa dominates the bottom rankings, other regions are not spared:
- Asia-Pacific: Bangladesh, Nepal, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Kiribati
- Latin America & Caribbean: Haiti, Venezuela, Honduras, Bolivia, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize
- Europe: Ukraine, Cyprus
Together, these red zone countries are home to more than 2 billion people, many of whom live in low- or middle-income nations. With populations expected to grow rapidly by 2070, the pressure to build climate resilience is becoming more urgent than ever.
The Cost of Inaction
Financial vulnerability is often the missing link in climate planning. While the world rightly focuses on reducing emissions, less attention is given to the ability of nations to recover from disasters.
“Traditional disaster aid tools often fail to paint the full picture,” Schlegelmilch added. “They might tell us where the storms will hit hardest, but not where recovery will be impossible due to financial constraints.”
That’s where the CliF Index comes in — offering a holistic, data-backed view of risk that goes beyond weather forecasts to include credit access, debt distress, and capacity to use climate finance effectively.
Who’s Doing It Right?
In contrast to the high-risk nations, the index also identifies the top 10 best-prepared countries — nations that combine strong financial systems with relatively low climate risk. These include:
- Denmark
- Estonia
- Japan
- Norway
- South Korea
- Switzerland
- Sweden
- United States
- China
- Thailand / UAE (depending on scenario)
These countries are better equipped to protect their economies, respond to emergencies, and invest in long-term adaptation plans.
A Critical Moment: FFD4 in Sevilla
The release of the index comes ahead of the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FFD4), set to take place soon in Sevilla, Spain. The goal: to mobilize global resources and policy alignment for the nations most in need.
Eric Pelofsky of the Rockefeller Foundation stressed the importance of timing. “Some of these countries are one disaster away from a humanitarian and economic collapse. We now have the data to target our help more effectively — and more equitably.”
The index is expected to play a key role in these upcoming negotiations, helping guide climate aid, international lending, and development partnerships based on science and equity, not just politics or short-term economics.
What the Future Holds
The CliF Index uses four different future scenarios, stretching to 2050 and even 2080, taking into account global cooperation, emissions levels, and population trends. Troublingly, 47 of the 65 red zone countries remain at high risk in all four models, suggesting that for many nations, even moderate global progress may not be enough.
This new data-driven approach signals a turning point in how the world talks about — and acts on — climate vulnerability.
Because in the end, the climate crisis isn’t just about heatwaves, hurricanes, or rising seas. It’s about whether the world’s most vulnerable people can survive, adapt, and thrive despite them.
