The much-anticipated meeting of opposition parties on the contentious delimitation issue ended in disarray, failing to present a united front against the Modi government. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin, a vocal critic of the proposed delimitation based on population, spearheaded the meeting in Chennai on Saturday. However, the absence of key northern parties and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) highlighted a stark divide.
The crux of Stalin’s argument lies in the potential loss of parliamentary and assembly representation for southern states if delimitation proceeds according to population. Southern leaders fear that such a move would disproportionately benefit northern states while diminishing their political influence. Leaders from Odisha, Punjab, and southern Congress factions attended the meeting, but parties from the Hindi heartland and Maharashtra distanced themselves. Notably, the TMC declined the invitation.
Southern states argue that population-based delimitation could reduce their seats, with the 2026 census set to trigger the redrawing of Lok Sabha constituencies. For instance, projections indicate that West Bengal’s seats could rise from 42 to 66 if the population threshold is set at 15 lakh per constituency. Even with a 20-lakh threshold, the state could still secure 50 seats. Yet, the TMC has remained non-committal, reflecting internal political calculations.
Similarly, the Samajwadi Party, rooted in Uttar Pradesh, remains tight-lipped. Uttar Pradesh stands to gain significantly from population-based seat allocation, potentially influencing its stance.
Reports suggest that Tamil Nadu may see only a marginal increase in seats, from 39 to 39, while Kerala could lose two seats, dropping from 20 to 18. Conversely, northern states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand are expected to benefit the most.
Should the 15-lakh population benchmark be adopted, the total number of Lok Sabha seats could surge from 543 to 942, further tilting the balance of power northward. In the event of a 20-lakh population criterion, the count would rise to 707.
This widening rift among opposition parties casts doubt on the formation of a cohesive resistance against the Modi government’s plans. As the 2026 deadline looms, the political landscape is set for further upheaval, with the southern states bracing for a battle to preserve their representation.
