Bihar is gearing up for one of its most consequential electoral battles in decades as the 243-seat state assembly election enters its critical phase, with voting scheduled for November 6 and 11 across two phases, and results set to be declared on November 14. The Election Commission of India announced the schedule on October 6, setting the stage for a fierce three-way contest that could reshape the political landscape of India’s third-most populous state, home to 7.43 crore voters including 14 lakh first-time voters.
The Major Players and Fragile Alliances
The National Democratic Alliance, led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party, has finalized its seat-sharing formula with both major partners contesting 101 seats each. Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) will fight on 29 seats, while Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha have been allocated six seats apiece. The BJP has completed its candidate announcements, releasing all 101 names across three lists, fielding incumbent Deputy Chief Ministers Samrat Chaudhary from Tarapur and Vijay Kumar Sinha from Lakhisarai, alongside popular folk singer Maithili Thakur from Alinagar and former IPS officer Anand Mishra from Buxar.
On the opposition front, the Mahagathbandhan faces internal turmoil despite reaching a tentative agreement. The Rashtriya Janata Dal, led by Tejashwi Yadav, has announced candidates for approximately 135 seats, down from an initial demand of 144. The Congress secured 61 seats after initially seeking 70, releasing names for 24 constituencies including state president Rajesh Ram from Kutumba. However, the alliance’s biggest headache remains Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party, which demanded 24-60 seats and the Deputy Chief Minister post but was eventually offered 18 seats—10 from RJD’s quota and eight from Congress. The protracted negotiations saw Sahani postponing press conferences multiple times, with his party workers even clashing at a Patna hotel, exposing deep fissures within the coalition.
Adding further complexity, the Left Front (CPI-ML, CPI, and CPM) has been allocated 29-31 seats in the Mahagathbandhan arrangement[10]. Meanwhile, former NDA ally turned opposition member, bahubali leader Surajbhan Singh, quit Pashupati Paras’s Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party to join RJD, with his wife Veena Devi expected to contest from Mokama.
Third Front and Wildcard Entries Shake Up the Race
Poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party is making its electoral debut, announcing 116 candidates so far with plans to contest all 243 seats[18][19]. Kishor himself confirmed he will not contest, choosing instead to focus on organizational work, despite earlier speculation about him fighting from either Raghopur or Kargahar. The party has fielded Chanchal Singh from Raghopur against RJD strongman Tejashwi Yadav and Bhojpuri singer Ritesh Ranjan Pandey from Kargahar[18][19]. Kishor set an ambitious target of 150 seats, calling anything less a “defeat,” and predicted the NDA would lose with JD(U) struggling to win even 25 seats.
Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, which won five seats in 2020, has formed a “Grand Democratic Alliance” with Chandrashekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party (25 seats) and Swami Prasad Maurya’s Apni Janata Party (four seats)[22][23][24][25]. AIMIM will contest 35 seats, expanding beyond its traditional Seemanchal stronghold into central and northern Bihar, fielding an eclectic mix including right-wing Hindu leader Rana Ranjit from Dhaka and controversial figures like Shaan-e-Ali from Sherghati. AIMIM state chief Akhtarul Iman accused RJD of excluding his party from Mahagathbandhan, necessitating the third front formation.
The Bahujan Samaj Party announced it will contest 88 seats independently, while the Aam Aadmi Party declared candidates for 59 constituencies. Lalu Yadav’s elder son Tej Pratap Yadav’s breakaway Janshakti Janta Dal is contesting 22 seats.
Electoral Timeline and Nomination Rush
The first phase on November 6 covers 121 constituencies across central Bihar, including flood-prone and rural areas in districts like Patna, Vaishali, Muzaffarpur, and Gopalganj. The second phase on November 11 includes 122 seats from border regions such as Champaran, Bhagalpur, and Aurangabad. The Election Commission deliberately scheduled voting after Chhath Puja, Bihar’s most popular festival, following requests from political parties to maximize voter participation[3][28].
For the first phase, nominations closed on October 17, with scrutiny on October 18 and withdrawal deadline on October 20. The second phase nomination deadline was October 20, with scrutiny on October 21 and withdrawal by October 23. Major leaders rushed to file papers in mid-October, with Tejashwi Yadav submitting his nomination from Raghopur on October 15, aiming for a third consecutive victory from the seat previously held by his parents Lalu Prasad and Rabri Devi.
The Four Pillars of Voter Discontent
Unemployment and Jobs Crisis: Dominating the electoral narrative is Bihar’s crippling unemployment problem, particularly acute among youth. While the state’s overall unemployment rate stands at 3.4%—marginally above the national average—urban youth unemployment soars to 10.8%. More alarmingly, only 1.9% of Bihar’s youth work in private sector jobs compared to the national average of 11.3%, creating massive pressure for government employment[32]. The Labour Force Participation Rate in Bihar is just 48.8%, with only 33.9% of those aged 15-29 actively seeking work—the lowest youth participation rate in India[33]. Tejashwi Yadav promised government jobs for one person per household within 20 days of forming government, directly addressing this anxiety.
Migration Crisis: High unemployment has triggered persistent out-migration, with thousands of Biharis leaving annually for Delhi, Mumbai, and other metros. An estimated 3.16 crore Biharis have registered on the government’s e-Shram portal seeking jobs, second only to Uttar Pradesh[33]. This “remittance economy” dynamic has become a central election issue, with parties promising industrial development to retain youth within Bihar.
Infrastructure Deficiencies: Inadequate health, education, transport, and urban infrastructure remains a major criticism. Recent heavy rains exposed systemic vulnerabilities—hospitals, schools, and public buildings suffered severe waterlogging, disrupting services. Subpar urban planning and incomplete public works projects have intensified demands for comprehensive upgrades.
Floods and Disaster Management: Recurring monsoon floods, particularly in northern Bihar along the Kosi and Mahananda rivers, devastate villages and displace families annually. Voters expect proactive policies and sustainable disaster resilience measures in party manifestos.
Additional themes include corruption, caste-based reservations, demands for Special Status for Bihar, the controversial Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SIR), and social welfare policies.
Opinion Polls Suggest Tight Contest
A C Voter opinion poll from October 2025 gave the NDA a narrow 40% chance of retaining power, with Mahagathbandhan close behind at 38.3%, while Jan Suraaj registered 13.3%. However, when voters were asked about their preferred Chief Minister, Tejashwi Yadav emerged as the most popular choice with 36.5% support, followed by Prashant Kishor at 23.2%, incumbent Nitish Kumar at 15.9%, and Chirag Paswan at 8.8%. An InkInsight opinion poll suggested NDA could secure approximately 50% vote share compared to Mahagathbandhan’s 37%.
The data reveals interesting dynamics: Nitish Kumar’s popularity ratings have nearly halved since 2020, with those losses being captured by Prashant Kishor rather than Tejashwi Yadav[36]. Youth voters—comprising 25% of the electorate—show the highest anti-incumbency sentiment, with their support distributed between Tejashwi and Prashant Kishor[36]. Women voters continue to marginally favor NDA, while men lean toward Mahagathbandhan.
BJP’s Strategic Gambit
Political analysts note the BJP is employing a strategy similar to its Maharashtra playbook, equalizing seat distribution with JD(U) despite Nitish Kumar’s seniority[38]. By contesting 101 seats each, the BJP positions itself to claim the Chief Ministership if its candidates outperform JD(U), much like Devendra Fadnavis replaced Eknath Shinde in Maharashtra after the 2024 elections[38]. Union Home Minister Amit Shah launched a three-day Bihar tour from October 16-18 to address rallies, attend candidate nominations, and review NDA’s electoral preparations, signaling the party’s serious intent.
Muslim Factor and Caste Calculations
Bihar’s 2.3 crore Muslim voters—18% of the population—could prove decisive in around 80 seats[39]. Traditionally backing RJD-Congress Mahagathbandhan, the community now faces choices with AIMIM’s aggressive expansion and Jan Suraaj’s outreach. Owaisi’s party aims to test Muslim loyalty to traditional alliances, particularly in Seemanchal districts like Kishanganj, Araria, Katihar, and Purnia where AIMIM won five seats in 2020. The party’s strategy of fielding diverse candidates including Hindu leaders suggests an attempt to broaden its base beyond “Muslim-only” perceptions.
Caste arithmetic remains crucial, with all parties carefully calibrating nominations to balance representation across upper castes, OBCs, Extremely Backward Classes, Scheduled Castes, and Scheduled Tribes. The entry of Mukesh Sahani, representing the Nishad community (2.6% of Bihar’s population), adds another layer to these calculations, with both NDA and Mahagathbandhan vying for this fishing community’s support[13][40].
Financial Constraints and Development Promises
Bihar’s budget for 2025-26 reveals structural constraints, with Rs 1.12 lakh crore—nearly 40% of total expenditure—committed to salaries, pensions, and interest payments. Capital expenditure is estimated at just under Rs 42,000 crore, only 14% of total spending[33]. This financial reality complicates campaign promises, particularly Tejashwi’s guaranteed government job pledge, which analysts warn could further strain state finances.
The state’s economic indicators paint a challenging picture: Bihar continues to struggle with low private sector investment, minimal industrialization, and dependence on agriculture and remittances. Political parties promise transformation through industrial clusters, Special Economic Zones, and investment-friendly policies, but implementation remains uncertain.
High-Stakes Showdown
The 2025 Bihar election represents more than a routine democratic exercise—it’s a referendum on Nitish Kumar’s nearly two-decade rule, a test of whether Tejashwi Yadav can translate personal popularity into electoral victory, and a debut for Prashant Kishor’s political experiment[19][34][32][28]. With 90,712 polling booths set up and 8.5 lakh election officers deployed, the Election Commission has mandated webcasting at all polling stations and appointed one observer per constituency for the first time.
As nomination papers pile up and campaign rhetoric intensifies, Bihar stands at a crossroads. The outcome on November 14 will determine whether voters reward the NDA’s governance claims, embrace Mahagathbandhan’s job promises, or take a chance on new political formations promising systemic change. In a state where development aspirations clash with entrenched political loyalties and where caste calculations intersect with class anxieties, the verdict could shape not just Bihar’s trajectory but offer crucial lessons for Indian democracy’s evolution in addressing youth unemployment, migration, and inclusive growth.
