In a move that has stirred diplomatic unease and environmental anxiety across South Asia, China has begun constructing a colossal hydroelectric dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River — the upper stream of India’s Brahmaputra — just a few kilometers north of Arunachal Pradesh. The ambitious $167.8 billion project is being developed by the newly formed state-backed China Yajiang Group, and is expected to generate a staggering 300 billion kWh of electricity annually. But for India and Bangladesh, the implications stretch far beyond power production.
The Yarlung Tsangpo, which becomes the Brahmaputra as it enters India’s northeast, is more than a river — it is a lifeline for millions in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, and Bangladesh. This new project, situated in Tibet’s Nyingchi prefecture — a seismically volatile and strategically sensitive zone — has ignited serious concerns in New Delhi and Dhaka.
Why India and Bangladesh Are on Edge
While China claims the dam is part of its clean energy roadmap, Indian experts and policymakers are not convinced. “China’s repeated unilateral moves on shared rivers must be seen as a major flashpoint,” warns Professor B. Deepak, a China expert at Jawaharlal Nehru University. This latest dam is not China’s first on the Brahmaputra’s upper reaches — it’s part of a growing pattern of hydrological control that alarms downstream nations.
Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has downplayed the idea of a complete water cutoff, stating in June that China contributes only 30–35% of the Brahmaputra’s total flow. The river swells as it moves through India due to unique topography and tributary networks. Still, that hasn’t erased fears that Beijing could weaponize water, especially during monsoon seasons or periods of geopolitical friction.
“Even a temporary diversion or sudden release of water could flood vast swathes of Assam and Bangladesh,” said an environmental analyst based in Guwahati. “It’s not just about scarcity — it’s about unpredictability.”
Earthquake Zone and Engineering Nightmares
Adding to the peril, the dam site lies in a known seismic hotspot. On January 7, a 7.1-magnitude earthquake rocked Tibet, killing at least 126 people. In the aftermath, five of China’s existing 14 dams in the region showed visible cracks. Environmentalists are calling this a “ticking time bomb.”
“Constructing a dam of this magnitude in an active earthquake zone is courting disaster,” said a senior environmental expert. “A quake-triggered landslide or dam breach could devastate regions downstream, from Arunachal Pradesh to northern Bangladesh.”
Diplomatic Frictions and the Lack of a Water Treaty
Unlike many transboundary rivers globally, India and China do not have a water-sharing treaty. The only mechanism in place — a hydrological data-sharing Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) — expired in June 2023 and remains non-binding. In the past, China has suspended this data sharing during periods of border tension, including the 2017 Doklam standoff.
In bilateral talks earlier this year, India had raised objections, demanding transparency, environmental assessments, and real-time water flow data. Yet, Beijing has gone ahead with construction, seemingly disregarding India’s strategic concerns.
Strategic Chokehold at the ‘Great Bend’
Perhaps the most geopolitically sensitive aspect of the dam is its location near the “Great Bend” — a sharp U-turn the river takes before entering India. In Chinese hydrological discourse, it is infamously referred to as the point where “the river goes rogue.”
For India, this bend isn’t just topography — it’s a chokehold. Whoever controls the flow here can dictate terms in water diplomacy. With Himalayan glaciers receding rapidly due to climate change, freshwater access is becoming more contentious than ever.
“Control of water is going to be the new currency of power in Asia,” said a strategic affairs analyst in New Delhi. “This dam is a pressure point — it’s part of a larger game.”
China’s Reassurances Ring Hollow
Officially, China maintains the dam will not adversely affect downstream nations. Beijing says it aims to support “clean energy generation and regional development.” But given the lack of transparency, independent oversight, or binding international guarantees, skepticism prevails.
“Trusting China’s word without a binding treaty is a diplomatic gamble India can no longer afford,” a retired Indian diplomat said. “This dam is a geopolitical lever disguised as an engineering marvel.”
The Way Forward: Preparedness Over Panic
While calls for international arbitration are growing louder, India is also working on counter-strategies — including the construction of multipurpose dams in Arunachal Pradesh and closer collaboration with Bangladesh on joint water management frameworks.
Experts believe dialogue and regional cooperation, possibly through multilateral forums like BIMSTEC or the UN, could bring transparency and fairness to Himalayan water sharing.
For now, the message from India is clear: the Brahmaputra is not just a river — it’s a strategic artery, and any attempts to control it unilaterally will face resistance, both diplomatically and on the ground.
