Gold Prices in India: Over the past two weeks, gold prices in India have surged nearly 10% on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), continuing a robust rally that has pushed gold rates to record levels. With a staggering 25% increase in 2025 alone, the yellow metal is now trading above ₹95,000 per 10 grams, with analysts suggesting that only a minor uptick of less than 5% is required for prices to breach the historic ₹1 lakh threshold—possibly even before Akshaya Tritiya.
This dramatic rise in gold prices isn’t just a local phenomenon but part of a broader global trend. So, what’s fuelling this surge, and can it continue?
Global Uncertainty Boosts Gold as a Safe Haven
The primary driver of this rally is the heightened global uncertainty. Factors like a weakening U.S. dollar, fears of an economic slowdown, trade war tensions, and President Donald Trump’s tariff policies have created volatility in financial markets worldwide. In response, investors are turning to gold as a traditional “safe haven” asset, driving up demand and prices from New York to New Delhi.
But this bull run raises critical questions:
- Will Trump’s tariffs and ongoing global trade tensions continue to influence investor sentiment?
- Will safe haven demand persist, or will investors soon book profits?
Some softening signs are already emerging. With China and Japan initiating fresh trade talks with the U.S., there is speculation that the Trump tariffs may ease, potentially lowering gold’s appeal in the short term. In fact, international markets have shown some cooling in gold prices over the past 24 hours.
Experts Are Divided
While bullish sentiment dominates, not everyone agrees on the long-term outlook. Analysts from Bank of America forecast that gold prices on COMEX could soar to $3,500 per ounce within two years. Similarly, Goldman Sachs predicts a rise to $3,300 per ounce by the end of 2025.
The underlying logic? A sell-off in risk assets such as equities, bonds, and currencies, combined with central bank gold purchases and mounting geopolitical tensions, is pushing investors toward gold.
However, some market watchers warn of overbuying. According to a Morningstar report, gold prices could drop as much as 40% in the coming years. The research firm believes the yellow metal might fall to $1,820 per ounce due to rising global gold supply, lack of corresponding demand growth, and reduced central bank purchases. In Indian terms, that could translate to MCX gold prices dropping to ₹55,000–₹56,000 per 10 grams, especially if the rupee strengthens further against the dollar.
What’s Behind Morningstar’s Grim Outlook?
Morningstar bases its projection on growing mining activity and increased gold recycling, which could flood the market with supply. The report also claims that central banks may taper their gold buying, and investor interest may wane as fears about the global economy ease over time.
Counter View: Correction Unlikely in Current Climate
Not everyone buys into the bearish view. Many experts believe the conditions Morningstar outlines are far from today’s reality. Jatin Trivedi, VP of Research (Commodities & Currency) at LKP Securities, argues that a significant price correction would require several ideal conditions: no trade wars, strong global economic growth, booming equity markets, and zero geopolitical tensions—none of which currently exist.
Trivedi points to recent data, noting that since April 7, 2025, domestic gold prices have jumped by 8% to reach ₹87,000, suggesting strong bullish sentiment. He believes that investor caution remains, and volatility is likely to continue due to macroeconomic uncertainties.
Conclusion: Time to Buy or Wait It Out?
As Akshaya Tritiya approaches, many retail investors are wondering whether to invest in gold now or wait for a correction. The answer depends on your risk appetite and investment horizon. While global instability and economic anxiety are likely to support gold prices in the short to medium term, any resolution of major geopolitical or trade tensions could trigger a temporary pullback.
For now, gold appears to be shining bright, and ₹1 lakh per 10 grams may just be a milestone waiting to be crossed in the coming days.
