Scientists at the University of New Mexico have issued a cautious warning about a potential rise in cosmic impact risk during the years 2032 and 2036. Their research centers on the Taurid meteor shower, a yearly celestial event famous for spectacular bright fireballs visible around Halloween. According to their study, a theoretical swarm of larger near-Earth objects (NEOs), dubbed the “Taurid resonant swarm,” may come dangerously close to Earth in those years, increasing chances of atmospheric explosions or impacts.
The Taurid meteors originate from debris left behind by Comet Encke and are known for producing bright “Halloween fireballs” every late October to early November. The new research led by Mark Boslough indicates that within this debris stream, larger objects could be concentrated due to Jupiter’s gravitational influence, forming a swarm that cycles close to Earth’s orbit. The hypothetical swarm’s approach from Earth’s nighttime side in 2032 and from the Sun’s direction in 2036 could pose unique detection challenges, but existing and upcoming telescopes, including NASA’s NEO Surveyor launching in 2027, might track these objects with enough lead time for mitigation.
While the probability of a significant impact remains low even with this enhanced risk, experts underscore the importance of planetary defense and public awareness. Lessons from past events like the Chelyabinsk meteor in 2013 reveal that injuries are often caused not by the explosion itself but by secondary effects such as flying glass caused by shockwaves. The researchers urge caution against misinformation, emphasizing reliance on peer-reviewed science to accurately assess and respond to near-Earth object threats.
This research highlights ongoing international efforts to monitor space hazards and develop strategies to protect Earth. With careful observation and preparedness, humanity can better face the cosmic risks hinted at by these enigmatic Halloween fireballs.
