In a significant geopolitical move, the Indian government on Wednesday announced that the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) of 1960 with Pakistan will be kept in abeyance until Islamabad takes credible and irreversible steps to stop supporting cross-border terrorism. The decision comes a day after a brutal terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, left 26 people—including tourists—dead.
This unprecedented move could signal a major shift in India’s diplomatic and water-sharing policy with its neighbor. The Indus Water Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, has long been considered a cornerstone of India-Pakistan relations—even surviving multiple wars and political tensions over the past six decades. However, this latest suspension marks a strong response by India to persistent acts of terrorism allegedly supported from across the border.
Understanding the Indus Water Treaty
The Indus River System includes six major rivers: the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab (Western rivers), which mostly flow into Pakistan, and the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej (Eastern rivers), which primarily flow through India. Under the treaty, India was granted control over the Eastern rivers, while Pakistan received rights to the Western rivers, though India retained limited usage rights on the Western side for non-consumptive uses like hydroelectric power.
The treaty has often been a flashpoint due to design disputes, particularly over Indian infrastructure projects like Baglihar, Kishanganga, and Ratle. Pakistan frequently objected to these projects, citing violations of the treaty’s design restrictions.
Why Now?
India’s decision comes in the wake of repeated cross-border terror attacks, the latest being the Pahalgam massacre, which stunned the nation. According to officials, India will no longer adhere to treaty obligations until Pakistan takes verifiable action against terrorist networks operating from its soil.
Former Indus Water Commissioner Pradeep Kumar Saxena noted that India has several strategic levers at its disposal. “Although the treaty lacks a direct exit clause, the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (Article 62) provides a pathway for withdrawal if fundamental conditions change,” he said. Saxena hinted this suspension could be the first step toward abrogation if Pakistan continues its current course.
What Does This Mean for Pakistan?
If the treaty remains in limbo or is eventually abrogated, Pakistan could face severe water shortages, especially in Punjab and Sindh provinces, where agriculture relies heavily on Indus river waters.
India can now:
Store water from Western rivers beyond the limits previously allowed.
Flush reservoirs like Kishanganga any time of the year, not just during monsoon—potentially during sowing season in Pakistan.
Accelerate hydroelectric projects in Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh without accommodating Pakistani objections.
Stop sharing flood data, which could leave Pakistan vulnerable during monsoons.
Block or slow the flow of water during critical agricultural periods, increasing food insecurity risks in Pakistan.
Impact on India
For India, this move is both strategic and symbolic. Operational restrictions on how reservoirs are managed are now void. It opens the path for faster and more autonomous development of hydropower infrastructure, helping address India’s growing energy needs—especially in the Himalayan belt.
Additionally, stopping water-sharing tours, mandated under the treaty, signals a clear breakdown of cooperation. The move could also help India gain domestic political capital by projecting a firm stance against terrorism.
Geopolitical Implications
The international community, especially China and the World Bank, which played a key role in facilitating the treaty, will be closely watching. Any escalation in water disputes could increase tensions in South Asia, a region already marred by military standoffs and nuclear risks.
India’s move may also inspire other countries grappling with transboundary water disputes to rethink their treaties. For instance, Egypt and Ethiopia have long been at loggerheads over the Nile waters.
A Watershed Moment
Since Independence, the Indus Treaty has symbolized a rare oasis of cooperation between India and Pakistan. Yet, with evolving regional threats, India is reasserting its right to leverage its upper riparian status—especially when national security is at stake.
India’s message is loud and clear: treaties born of peace cannot endure in the shadow of terror. The future of the Indus Water Treaty now rests squarely in Pakistan’s hands.
