In a sharp escalation of tensions following the Pahalgam terror attack, India halts water-sharing agreements, leaving Pakistan grappling with severe consequences.
In a major geopolitical development, relations between India and Pakistan have further deteriorated after India announced the suspension of the historic Indus Waters Treaty. Following the move, Pakistan’s media outlets have reported a sudden and heavy release of water into the Jhelum River, triggering a water emergency in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).
According to Pakistani reports, the sudden rise in water levels near Muzaffarabad has led local authorities to declare an emergency in Hattian Bala district. Loudspeakers from mosques blared warnings to residents as the Jhelum River overflowed after water entered from Baramulla in northern Kashmir, surging through the Chakothi area of PoK. The situation unfolded just days after India officially notified Pakistan about the suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty.
India’s Formal Notification to Pakistan
India’s Ministry of Jal Shakti, through Secretary Debashree Mukherjee, sent an official letter to Pakistani officials, asserting that continued cross-border terrorism targeting Jammu and Kashmir violated the spirit and obligations of the Indus Waters Treaty.
The letter underlined that “the obligation to respect and honor treaties in good faith is fundamental,” but Pakistan’s actions, particularly by encouraging terrorism, had undermined the treaty’s purpose. India formally suspended all treaty-related engagements, including meetings of Indus Commissioners, sharing of hydrological data, and prior notifications for new projects on the rivers.
Pakistan Labels Suspension as “Act of War”
Unsurprisingly, Pakistan reacted sharply. Islamabad rejected India’s suspension of the treaty, calling any attempt to restrict river flows as an “act of war.” The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 after nine years of negotiations mediated by the World Bank, was one of the few bilateral agreements that withstood several wars and skirmishes between the two nations.
However, experts say India’s recent decision could have a devastating impact on Pakistan, particularly on its already struggling agriculture sector, which heavily relies on rivers allocated under the treaty.
What Changes After the Suspension?
1. Indus Commissioners Meetings Halted
Previously, the treaty mandated annual meetings between the Indus Commissioners of both nations to resolve disputes and coordinate river management. These meetings will now cease, eliminating a key diplomatic channel for water-related issues.
2. No Data Sharing
India will no longer share flood warnings, river flow updates, or glacial melt patterns with Pakistan. This could increase the risk of floods and droughts in Pakistan, as it would lack crucial early-warning systems.
3. Unilateral Construction Rights
India will now move forward with hydroelectric projects on western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) without consulting Pakistan. Previously, Pakistan had the right to object to the designs of such projects.
4. Restricted Access for Pakistani Officials
Pakistani officials will no longer have the right to inspect Indian hydroelectric projects in Jammu and Kashmir, restricting their ability to monitor construction activities that may affect river flow.
5. No Annual Reports
The Permanent Indus Commission, tasked with managing the treaty’s implementation, will no longer publish annual reports, creating significant hurdles for Pakistan’s irrigation planning and agricultural policymaking.
How Will Pakistan Be Affected?
Already reeling under economic and political instability, Pakistan now faces a looming water crisis. The Indus River System forms the backbone of Pakistan’s agriculture, providing irrigation to around 90% of its crops.
Any disruption in water supply could severely impact crop yields, food security, and energy production, as a large portion of Pakistan’s electricity comes from hydroelectric sources tied to these rivers. Regions like Punjab and Sindh, already grappling with water scarcity, could see worsening conditions, triggering social unrest.
Moreover, Pakistan’s heavy dependence on coal imports—already a financial burden—may grow as hydropower generation declines. Given that over 60% of Pakistan’s GDP is tied up in debt, any additional pressure could tip the economy into deeper turmoil.
Background: What Is the Indus Waters Treaty?
Brokered by the World Bank and signed in 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty allocated the three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) to India, and the three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) to Pakistan. Despite tensions and wars, the treaty had been respected for over six decades until now.
India’s move marks a historic shift, signaling that bilateral agreements can no longer be separated from broader security concerns, especially when terrorism remains unresolved.
