Signed in 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) stands as one of the few enduring accords between India and Pakistan despite decades of conflict and mistrust. Brokered by the World Bank, the treaty divides the waters of the Indus River system between the two neighbors. But with recent escalations in cross-border tensions, India has put the treaty “in abeyance”, sparking concerns of a severe water crisis in Pakistan. This move brings the spotlight back on the origins of the treaty, its evolution over time, and its fundamental impact on millions of Pakistani citizens.
The Origins: A Partition That Split the Waters
The Indus River basin, home to one of the oldest civilizations in the world, was divided between India and Pakistan at the time of Partition in 1947. This division disrupted a previously unified irrigation system, creating an immediate and existential challenge for Pakistan’s agricultural economy.
Two crucial irrigation headworks — Madhopur on the Ravi and Ferozepur on the Sutlej — remained in Indian territory. The resulting water insecurity in West Pakistan led to early tensions and temporary Standstill Agreements on water usage, but a long-term solution remained elusive.
After nearly a decade of negotiations facilitated by the World Bank, the Indus Waters Treaty was signed on September 19, 1960, by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan.
Key Provisions of the Indus Waters Treaty
The treaty allocated:
Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India for unrestricted use.
Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan, though India retained the right for non-consumptive, domestic, and hydroelectric use under strict design criteria.
The World Bank remained a signatory and played a key role in funding the construction of dams, link canals, and infrastructure in Pakistan to replace the diverted waters of the Eastern rivers.
A Permanent Indus Commission was also established to facilitate annual meetings, inspections, and data exchange between the two countries.
A Lifeline for Pakistan’s Agriculture
For Pakistan, the treaty has been nothing short of a lifeline. The Indus basin supports:
90% of Pakistan’s agricultural production
Over 200 million citizens, a majority of whom depend on agriculture
One of the largest contiguous irrigation systems in the world
Crops such as wheat, rice, and sugarcane — which are water-intensive — heavily rely on the consistent flow of water from the Western rivers. The economy of Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous province, hinges on water security from these rivers.
India’s Strategic Edge as the Upper Riparian
Despite the treaty’s durability, India — being upstream — holds a strategic geographical advantage. This has been a long-standing concern for Pakistan, especially during times of political or military tension.
India has constructed several hydropower projects like:
Baglihar Dam (Chenab)
Kishanganga Project (Jhelum)
Ratle and Pakal Dul (ongoing)
While India argues these comply with IWT design criteria, Pakistan has frequently raised objections, alleging violations.
The Latest Shift: India Puts Treaty in Abeyance
In April 2025, following a deadly terrorist attack in Jammu & Kashmir, India officially announced that the Indus Waters Treaty would be held “in abeyance” until Pakistan takes “credible and irrevocable” steps to end cross-border terrorism.
This move allows India to:
Operate reservoirs on Western rivers with fewer restrictions
Accelerate hydropower development
Stop sharing flood-related data
Halt bilateral water talks and inspections
The Looming Impact on Pakistani Citizens
The consequences of India halting cooperation under IWT could be dire for ordinary Pakistanis:
1. Water Shortages: Farmers in Punjab and Sindh may experience reduced irrigation water, especially during the sowing season.
2. Food Security: Lower crop yields could lead to rising food prices and increased rural poverty.
3. Urban Water Crisis: Cities like Lahore and Karachi, already struggling with water scarcity, may face worsening shortages.
4. Flood Risks: Without access to flood data, disaster preparedness in Pakistan will be severely hampered, especially during monsoons.
5. Energy Deficit: Delays or damage to existing and planned hydropower projects may exacerbate electricity shortages.
Global Concern and Legal Challenges
While the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (Article 62) provides a route to suspend or repudiate treaties due to fundamental change in circumstances, outright abrogation of the IWT remains contentious. Pakistan may appeal to international forums or seek arbitration through the World Bank.
Meanwhile, global powers including the UN and the U.S. are watching closely, as water-sharing disputes could deepen instability in South Asia — a nuclear-armed region.
Outcomes: A Treaty at Crossroads
The Indus Waters Treaty has stood the test of wars and political upheavals for over six decades. But with its current suspension, a vital mechanism ensuring peace through water diplomacy is now uncertain. For the millions of Pakistani citizens whose lives depend on the Indus and its tributaries, the treaty’s future is no longer just a diplomatic question — it’s a humanitarian one.
