In a dramatic twist of political fate, the Liberal Party of Canada, under the untested yet composed leadership of Mark Carney, has secured its fourth successive term in office—defying months of speculation about a Conservative resurgence. While the final seat tally may leave Carney heading a minority government, the real stories of Election 2025 lie in two polarizing forces: Donald Trump’s provocative influence and the collapse of Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party (NDP).
According to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC), the Liberals are projected to win 165 seats with 43% of the popular vote, just shy of the 172 needed for a majority in the 343-member House of Commons. The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, trail with 147 seats, unable to maintain momentum amid a shifting political atmosphere. The Bloc Québécois holds 23, while the once influential NDP has been reduced to a distant fourth place with only seven seats—losing its official party status in Parliament.
1. Mark Carney: From Central Banker to Political Stabilizer
Just months ago, Mark Carney was best known for his stints as Governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England. Now, he has emerged as a symbol of stability in uncertain times. With inflation fears, housing affordability crises, and growing global instability, Carney’s measured, economy-first campaign resonated deeply with Canadian voters.
In his victory speech Monday night, Carney struck a tone of defiance, particularly aimed south of the border. “President Trump is trying to break us so he can own us,” he warned. “That will never happen. Who’s ready to stand up for Canada with me?”
His words drew thunderous applause, as he positioned himself not just as a domestic leader—but as a defender of Canada’s sovereignty in a hostile global environment.
2. Donald Trump: The Unofficial Opponent
Though he wasn’t on the ballot, former U.S. President Donald Trump cast a long shadow over the Canadian elections. Since returning to office earlier this year, Trump has escalated his rhetoric against Canada, referring to it as “the 51st U.S. state” and threatening economic retaliation if Canada doesn’t “fall in line.”
On election day, Trump posted a bizarre message on social media, promising Canadians economic miracles if they join the United States outright. The message, instead of swaying voters, seemed to backfire—galvanizing nationalist sentiments and pushing swing voters into the Liberal camp.
“Trump’s bullying worked in our favor,” a Liberal campaign strategist told reporters. “Canadians don’t respond well to threats.”
3. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Vision Falters
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre entered the race with high expectations. His low-tax, small-government messaging, inspired in part by Trump’s MAGA playbook, initially gained traction among those frustrated with the high cost of living.
But Poilievre’s reluctance to decisively distance himself from Trump became a liability. Many Canadians, especially after Trump’s threats, saw him as “Trump Lite”—a moniker that gained traction online and in liberal media.
Although he has refused to step down as party leader, his loss in his own riding of Carleton has triggered internal rumblings. The Conservative Party now faces a reckoning: Can they win by appealing to populism, or must they find a more centrist path?
4. Jagmeet Singh’s Political Sunset
Perhaps no figure fell harder on election night than Jagmeet Singh. Once a powerbroker who held sway over Trudeau’s minority government, Singh not only lost his seat in Burnaby Central but also saw his party crumble into near irrelevance.
The NDP secured only seven seats—well below the 12 needed to qualify as an official national party. Singh, who had long championed pro-Khalistani sentiments and repeatedly accused India of state-sponsored terrorism without providing conclusive evidence, now finds himself out of office and out of favor.
“It has been the honor of my life to lead the NDP,” he posted on X (formerly Twitter), announcing his resignation. Political analysts believe Singh’s aggressive stance on India and his role in propping up an increasingly unpopular Trudeau administration alienated a large section of Canadians, including the moderate immigrant vote.
5. A New Chapter for India-Canada Relations?
Jagmeet Singh’s exit and Carney’s rise could mark a turning point in the strained diplomatic relations between India and Canada. The souring of ties under Justin Trudeau, triggered by his public allegations that Indian government agents were involved in the killing of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in 2023, reached historic lows.
India rejected the claims as “baseless” and retaliated diplomatically, with both countries expelling diplomats and stalling trade talks. In January 2025, a Canadian commission found “no definitive link” to a foreign state in Nijjar’s killing, vindicating India’s position.
With Singh now out and Trudeau in the political rearview, Carney has the opportunity to reset the narrative. New Delhi has already welcomed the possibility of renewed dialogue, emphasizing the need for mutual “trust and sensitivity.”
However, rebuilding the relationship won’t be easy. The resolution of the Nijjar murder case and Carney’s diplomatic choices in the coming months will determine how quickly—and how far—Canada and India can move past their recent hostilities.
