Recent surveys and voter sentiment analysis reveal a closely contested battle for the upcoming Bihar Assembly Elections 2025, with the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) holding a slight edge over the opposition Mahagathbandhan, while political strategist Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party emerges as a potential kingmaker in what could be Bihar’s most unpredictable election yet.
Survey Results Paint Picture of Tight Contest
Multiple opinion polls conducted across Bihar’s nine administrative zones indicate a neck-and-neck race between the two major alliances. According to the comprehensive People’s Pulse Research survey, the NDA is projected to secure 41-44% of the vote share, while the INDIA bloc (Mahagathbandhan) is expected to garner 40-42.5% of votes[2]. The Ascendia survey suggests the NDA leading in 47 constituencies with the Mahagathbandhan ahead in 19 seats.
A more recent Times Now-JVC opinion poll gives the NDA a more definitive edge, predicting 136 seats for the ruling alliance against 75 seats for the Mahagathbandhan in the 243-member assembly, where the majority mark stands at 122. Within the NDA, the BJP is expected to make significant gains, with projections of 81 seats compared to 74 in 2020, while Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) may see its tally drop from 43 to around 31 seats.
Caste Arithmetic Remains Decisive Factor
Voter preferences continue to follow traditional caste lines, with surveys showing entrenched loyalties across different communities. The NDA maintains strong support among upper castes (55%), Scheduled Castes (43%), and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) who constitute 26% of the population[3][4]. The Mahagathbandhan retains its grip on its core constituencies, particularly Muslims (70% support) and Yadavs, though there are emerging concerns about Muslim voter dissatisfaction with reduced representation in the alliance.
The Dalit community, comprising about 20% of the state’s population, shows a complex voting pattern. While Paswan and Musahar sub-castes lean toward the NDA due to leaders like Chirag Paswan and Jiten Ram Manjhi, the Chamar community tends to favor the Mahagathbandhan. Recent surveys indicate a shift in Dalit political preferences, with the Mahagathbandhan emerging as the preferred choice for many in this critical voter segment.
Key Issues Driving Voter Sentiment
Unemployment and Migration Top Concerns
Survey data reveals that unemployment (21.2%) and caste census demands (23.5%) have emerged as the most pressing issues for Bihar voters. The state’s chronic problem of youth migration continues to influence electoral preferences, with over 2.5 million people migrating annually for work. The Mahagathbandhan has capitalized on these concerns by promising 10 lakh jobs and unemployment allowances.
Corruption and Governance Questions
Corruption remains a significant concern across party lines, with voters expressing frustration over “low-level corruption and bureaucratic dominance” that affects daily life[10]. Opposition leader Tejashwi Yadav has made corruption a central campaign theme, promising tough action against corrupt officials if voted to power. The issue resonates particularly with younger voters who show stronger anti-incumbency sentiment (57% among 18-24 age group).
Law and Order Perceptions
The fear of “jungle raj” continues to influence voting patterns, particularly among upper caste and EBC voters who view this as a compelling reason to support the NDA despite other concerns[10]. This “majboori vote” (compulsion vote) suggests that some voters support the alliance not out of enthusiasm but from apprehension about alternatives.
Prashant Kishor’s Wild Card Factor
The entry of political strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party has added a new dimension to Bihar politics. Survey data shows the party could capture 8.7% of the vote share, potentially playing a kingmaker role. Kishor’s appeal is strongest among educated voters, youth, and the middle class, with 13.7% of respondents seeing him as a potential Chief Minister.
The party’s impact varies regionally, with stronger influence in South Bihar compared to North Bihar[3]. In constituencies like Bhojpur, Jan Suraj is emerging as the strongest force, potentially disrupting traditional bipolar contests. However, Muslim voters remain skeptical of Kishor, with concerns about his funding sources and allegations of being a BJP proxy.
Regional Variations and Electoral Dynamics
The battle shows distinct regional patterns across Bihar’s administrative zones. In Purnia, with its 46% Muslim population, the NDA’s position remains relatively stable, while the Mahagathbandhan shows improvement[1]. The Saran region presents a tight contest between both major alliances, while Bhojpur could see significant changes with Jan Suraj’s emergence as a major force.
Anti-Incumbency vs. Status Quo
Despite nearly 20 years of Nitish Kumar’s rule, Bihar presents a “remarkably balanced political environment” with limited strong anti-incumbency sentiment[10]. Survey data shows 48% anti-incumbency against the BJP-JD(U) government, but pro-incumbency has increased from 18.3% in July to 27.1% in September 2025.
Electoral Commission Controversy Adds Complexity
The Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voter rolls has become a contentious issue, with 65 lakh names deleted from the draft voter list. While 58% of respondents believe the exercise ensures only citizens can vote, the opposition has raised concerns about potential disenfranchisement of legitimate voters. This controversy has particularly affected migrant workers and could influence turnout patterns.
Leadership Popularity Contest
In terms of Chief Ministerial preferences, Tejashwi Yadav leads with 33.5% support, followed by Nitish Kumar at 24%, and Prashant Kishor at 13.7%. The leadership question remains crucial as both major alliances face internal dynamics that could affect their electoral prospects.
Election Timeline and Final Preparations
The Bihar Assembly Elections are scheduled to be held in three phases between November 5-15, 2025, after Chhath Puja celebrations. The Election Commission is expected to announce the final schedule in early October, with the current assembly’s term ending on November 22, 2025.
A Battle of Margins
With traditional vote banks largely intact and new factors like Jan Suraj adding unpredictability, the 2025 Bihar elections appear set for a close finish. The NDA’s slight advantage in current surveys could easily shift based on final candidate selection, alliance management, and voter turnout on election day. The outcome will likely depend on micro-level factors, local candidate strength, and the ability of each alliance to mobilize their core constituencies while appealing to undecided voters who could prove decisive in this high-stakes political battle.
The election represents more than just a contest for power – it’s a test of whether Bihar’s voters are ready to move beyond traditional caste-based politics or will once again reaffirm established loyalties in determining the state’s political future.
