Bihar Assembly Elections 2025: As Bihar heads into its highly anticipated 2025 Assembly elections, the latest opinion polls and trends reveal a closely contested battle between the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB), with fresh political players like Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj emerging as potential kingmakers. The first phase of voting is scheduled for November 6, 2025, across 121 constituencies, followed by the second phase on November 11, with results to be declared on November 14. According to multiple surveys conducted by leading polling agencies between October and early November 2025, the NDA maintains a slim but consistent edge, though the contest remains significantly competitive.
Poll Projections: NDA’s Slender Advantage Over Mahagathbandhan
Multiple opinion polls conducted by established agencies paint a nuanced picture of the electoral landscape. According to the consolidated data from surveys by C-Voter, IANS-Matrize, NewsX, TimesNow-ETG Research, India TV-CVoter, Capital TV, ISAS, and JVC polls, the NDA is projected to secure between 120 and 165 seats out of the 243-member Assembly. The average projection across all polls suggests the NDA will likely secure around 140–145 seats with an estimated vote share of 44–49 percent. This would provide the coalition a comfortable majority in the state legislature. Meanwhile, the opposition Mahagathbandhan is projected to win between 63 and 112 seats, with an average vote share of 36–41 percent, making it a formidable opposition but insufficient for power.
The most aggressive NDA projection comes from Capital TV’s “Mood Check” Poll, which forecasts 160–165 NDA seats, while the most conservative comes from ISAS (Singapore), projecting 125+ seats for the alliance. Conversely, the Mahagathbandhan’s seat estimates range from a low of 63 seats in the Capital TV poll to as high as 112 seats in the JVC-Times Now poll from November 1, 2025. This variance reflects the dynamic nature of campaign trends and shifting voter sentiments as the elections approach.
The Third Force: Jan Suraaj’s Emerging Role
A significant development in Bihar’s political narrative is the rise of Jan Suraaj, led by Prashant Kishor, a political strategist who gained prominence as a consultant to multiple parties. Opinion polls consistently project Jan Suraaj to capture between 3 and 17 seats with an 7–10 percent vote share. While these numbers may appear modest, political analysts view Jan Suraaj as a potential disruptor, particularly in western and northern Bihar, where it can influence marginal contests. The party has primarily attracted disaffected youth voters, urban constituencies, and those frustrated with traditional political establishments, positioning itself as a fresh alternative in the state’s political ecosystem.
Chief Minister Preference: Tejashwi Leads Popular Support, But Nitish Enjoys Alliance Advantage
When respondents are asked about their preferred Chief Minister candidate, an interesting pattern emerges. RJD leader and Mahagathbandhan’s CM face Tejashwi Yadav leads personal popularity with approximately 36.5 percent preference, according to C-Voter polls conducted in October 2025. However, incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar remains highly competitive, securing 35.6–42 percent support across different polls, largely due to NDA’s governance performance rating. Prashant Kishor, the Jan Suraaj leader, has emerged as a surprising contender, commanding 9–23 percent preference, particularly among younger voters and urban constituencies. Meanwhile, LJP leader Chirag Paswan has been gaining traction with 4.6–8.8 percent support, especially in Dalit and Seemanchal constituencies, while other candidates like Samrat Choudhary and Giriraj Singh remain marginal factors with less than 5 percent support.
The competitive nature of CM preference votes underscores that while Tejashwi Yadav enjoys a marginal lead in personal popularity, the NDA’s alliance advantage and Nitish Kumar’s incumbency factor keep him in a formidable position. The “Vote Vibe” poll from October 2025 indicated that the gap between NDA and Mahagathbandhan was razor-thin at just 1.6 percent, suggesting significant volatility and the possibility of electoral surprises.
Major Issues Dominating Campaign Discourse
Bihar’s 2025 electoral battleground is defined by four critical issues that have captured voter attention and shaped both alliance manifestos and campaign messaging.
1. Unemployment and Job Creation: Unemployment emerges as the paramount concern for Bihar’s electorate, particularly among youth and first-time voters. According to Ministry of Labour & Employment data from 2022–23, Bihar’s overall unemployment rate stands at 3.4 percent, marginally above the national average of 3.2 percent. However, urban youth unemployment is significantly higher at 10.8 percent, reflecting acute job scarcity for educated youth. Compounding this crisis is Bihar’s underdeveloped private sector, with only 1.9 percent of youth employed in private jobs compared to the national average of 11.3 percent. This shortage has intensified competition for government jobs, where paper leak scandals and irregular examination schedules have further frustrated aspirants. The RJD-led Mahagathbandhan has made an audacious campaign promise: one government job per household, a pledge that has resonated with job-seeking voters. The NDA counters with promises to create one crore jobs and employment opportunities over five years through a comprehensive “Skill Census” and establishment of “Mega Skill Centres” in every district.
2. Migration Crisis: Persistent out-migration of Bihar’s workforce seeking better opportunities across India represents a systemic failure of the state’s economy to retain talent and families. Thousands of workers leave Bihar annually to work in metros and developed states, creating a “remittance economy” where family survival depends on money sent back home. This issue has become central to election discourse, with both alliances proposing industrial development and job creation as long-term solutions to stem the migration tide.
3. Infrastructure Deficiencies: Inadequate infrastructure—particularly in health, education, transport, and urban planning—remains a chronic grievance. Recent heavy monsoon rains exposed critical vulnerabilities, with hospitals, schools, and public buildings experiencing severe waterlogging and disruption of essential services. Voters have grown increasingly frustrated with incomplete public works projects and substandard urban infrastructure, making this a key differentiator in campaign promises.
4. Flooding and Disaster Management: Northern Bihar experiences recurrent monsoon flooding, with major rivers like Kosi and Mahananda causing devastating floods that displace families and inundate critical infrastructure. The 2025 election campaigns have witnessed major parties committing to more proactive policies and sustainable disaster resilience measures. Both alliances have included flood management and relief protocols in their election manifestos.
Alliance Campaigns and Manifestos: Competing Visions
The NDA’s 69-page manifesto, unveiled by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, focuses on continuity, infrastructure expansion, and empowerment schemes. Key promises include one crore government jobs, making women “lakhpati didis” (millionaires), financial assistance of up to Rs 2 lakh under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana, and large-scale infrastructure projects aimed at retaining youth and reducing migration. The manifesto also emphasizes governance, rule of law, and economic reforms under the current administration.
The opposition’s “Bihar Ka Tejashwi Prann” (Bihar’s Tejashwi Promise) manifesto, released by RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav and Congress leader Pawan Khera, emphasizes economic relief and direct welfare. Notable promises include one government job per household, restoration of the Old Pension Scheme, Rs 2,500 monthly allowance for women, and 200 units of free power. On the final day of campaigning, Tejashwi Yadav announced that annual financial aid of Rs 30,000 would be provided to women in January next year if the Mahagathbandhan comes to power—a bold counter to the NDA’s existing welfare schemes.
Campaign Dynamics and Key Campaigners
The campaign trail witnessed high-decibel clashes between top national and state leaders. Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed multiple rallies and conducted virtual interactions with BJP cadre, primarily targeting the Mahagathbandhan over law and order, development, and unemployment. Union Home Minister Amit Shah projected confidence, claiming the NDA would secure 160+ seats, and conducted multiple rallies across constituencies. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi made three public addresses attacking Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, alleging he was “sitting on BJP’s lap,” echoing the opposition’s narrative of compromised autonomy.
The NDA has emphasized governance performance, rule of law, and economic progress under Nitish Kumar’s administration, including Rs 42,000 crore in investments under new industrial policy and employment generation initiatives. They have also underscored women’s empowerment and financial inclusion as hallmarks of their rule. The Mahagathbandhan countered with accusations of administrative failures, insufficient job creation, and unfulfilled promises, framing the elections as a referendum on whether “jungle raj” and corruption should return or whether a “new Bihar” should emerge.
Internal Dynamics and Electoral Volatility
While the NDA maintains a structural advantage through incumbency and alliance stability, the Mahagathbandhan faces persistent questions about internal cohesion. The Congress party, while part of the coalition, remains a junior ally with limited organizational presence in many constituencies. However, the entry of Jan Suraaj as a third force has created new volatility. By fragmenting the youth vote—traditionally a contested bloc—and attracting first-time voters frustrated with mainstream parties, Prashant Kishor’s party could determine outcomes in closely contested seats, potentially benefiting either alliance depending on tactical voting patterns.
Political analysts also note that the “Vote Vibe” survey’s indication of a mere 1.6 percent gap between NDA and Mahagathbandhan suggests that ground-level factors, local candidate quality, caste equations, and regional sub-regional dynamics could significantly alter final outcomes from opinion poll projections. Anti-incumbency against certain JD(U) leaders in specific constituencies and sympathy factors for opposition candidates in their strongholds remain wild cards.
A Closely Fought Contest with NDA’s Edge Intact
Based on current trends and opinion polls as of early November 2025, the NDA holds a slender but consistent advantage in Bihar’s assembly elections, with projections suggesting a majority in the 140–150 seat range. However, the competitiveness of CM preference voting—where Tejashwi Yadav marginally leads personal popularity—and the razor-thin 1.6 percent gap between alliances in some polls indicate this is no runaway victory for the incumbent coalition.
The election’s outcome will ultimately depend on how Bihar’s electorate prioritizes the major issues of unemployment, infrastructure, flooding, and welfare schemes. The youth vote, particularly its fragmentation between NDA, Mahagathbandhan, and Jan Suraaj, will be decisive. As voters prepare to cast their ballots on November 6 and 11, the consensus among observers is that while the NDA enters as the favorite, the Mahagathbandhan remains a credible challenger, and surprises remain entirely possible in one of India’s most unpredictable states.
