The Indian economy continues to stand strong in the face of growing global uncertainty, as highlighted in the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) October 2025 bulletin. Despite challenges such as renewed US-China trade tensions and a prolonged US government shutdown, India showcases robust domestic demand, easing inflation, and positive growth forecasts that underline its resilience.
The RBI bulletin reports a sharp moderation in headline consumer price index inflation, reaching its lowest level since June 2017, driven largely by prolonged food deflation. This low inflation provides the central bank with significant space to support growth while maintaining price stability. Major international agencies, including the IMF and OECD, have revised India’s 2025 GDP growth forecasts upward to around 6.7-6.8%, reflecting strong underlying demand in both urban and rural sectors.
However, the bulletin also notes emerging challenges on the foreign investment front. For the first time this fiscal year, net foreign direct investment turned negative in August due to moderated inflows and increased repatriation by foreign companies. Yet, India’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain solid with low inflation, robust corporate balance sheets, and substantial foreign exchange reserves exceeding $700 billion, cushioning it against external shocks.
The RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra emphasized coordinated policy efforts and structural reforms, including recent GST rate rationalization, as vital components in India’s vision to achieve high growth and economic stability. The bulletin underscores the strong recovery of the private corporate sector, with rising net profits and improved debt servicing capacity, and highlights the vibrant SME IPO market.
Overall, the RBI’s October bulletin portrays India as a resilient economy, navigating global headwinds through durable domestic strengths and prudent policy measures, poised for sustained high growth amid uncertain global conditions.
