In a chilling turn of events, Russia has officially scrapped its self-imposed limits under the historic Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, signalling a dangerous shift in global military dynamics and escalating its standoff with the United States. The announcement, confirmed on Tuesday by the Russian Foreign Ministry, has sparked renewed fears of an arms race reminiscent of the Cold War era.
The decision comes at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions, driven by sanctions, military posturing, and fierce competition over energy markets.
Why Did Russia Ditch the INF Treaty?
Russia claims its decision is a direct response to U.S. military actions in Europe and the Asia-Pacific. Citing the deployment of American intermediate-range missiles in those regions, Moscow argued that Washington’s provocations have effectively nullified the treaty’s purpose.
“We no longer consider ourselves bound by previously adopted self-restrictions,” said a statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry, accusing the U.S. of undermining mutual trust by stationing nuclear submarines and deploying missiles near Russian borders.
This move marks the official end of Russia’s promise—made after the U.S. pulled out of the INF Treaty in 2019—that it wouldn’t deploy such missiles unless America did so first.
Who Is in the Crosshairs?
The implications of Russia’s withdrawal are far-reaching. NATO countries in Europe are now within potential range of short- and intermediate-range Russian nuclear missiles. Nations like Poland, Germany, Romania, and the Baltics face the most immediate threat.
Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific countries, including U.S. allies like Japan and the Philippines, are also on high alert. Russia’s move follows closely on the heels of reports that the U.S. plans to deploy missiles in these regions, which Moscow views as direct threats to its national security.
What Was the INF Treaty?
Signed in 1987 by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, the INF Treaty eliminated a whole class of nuclear-capable missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. It helped reduce Cold War tensions and prevented the rapid escalation of nuclear conflict, especially in Europe.
But the treaty started to crumble when the U.S. withdrew in 2019, accusing Russia of violations. Russia, in turn, made a strategic pledge to abstain from deploying INF-range missiles—a promise now revoked.
What Sparked the Latest Fallout?
The collapse in relations appears to have been triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent sanctions against Moscow. Trump announced sweeping economic penalties, including threats to countries—like India and China—that continue to buy Russian oil.
Adding fuel to the fire, Trump gave Russian President Vladimir Putin an ultimatum to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine by August 8, warning of further consequences if ignored. He also disclosed the repositioning of two U.S. nuclear submarines, pushing tensions into red-alert territory.
In response, Russian officials denounced what they called “nuclear brinkmanship,” urging global leaders to approach the issue with caution.
How Is India Caught in the Crossfire?
India, one of the largest buyers of Russian oil, has found itself in the U.S. firing line. Washington recently slapped a 25% tariff on Indian goods and hinted at broader sanctions targeting India’s defence and energy ties with Moscow.
In a swift rebuttal, India’s Ministry of External Affairs described the U.S. moves as “unjustified and unreasonable.” External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar emphasized India’s commitment to a “fair global order” and accused the West of hypocrisy—pointing out that the U.S. and EU continue to import certain Russian commodities while targeting others for doing the same.
Who’s Buying Russian Oil?
With Europe largely cutting off Russian energy imports since 2023, India, China, and Turkey have emerged as Moscow’s top energy customers. According to data from the Associated Press:
- China leads with over $219.5 billion in energy imports from Russia.
- India follows with $133.4 billion, a dramatic jump from under 1% pre-Ukraine war to now nearly 40% of its total oil intake.
- Turkey rounds out the top three with $90.3 billion in imports.
Ironically, these trade shifts were initially encouraged by Western powers to stabilize global markets—a policy that’s now being reversed as geopolitical lines harden.
Is the World Entering a New Cold War?
The signals are hard to ignore. With the INF Treaty now dead, both Washington and Moscow are ramping up deployments of nuclear-capable assets, reinstating Cold War-era rhetoric, and entering a phase of escalating sanctions and military threats.
Experts warn that without treaties like the INF, the risk of miscalculation and conflict dramatically increases. The absence of direct, dependable communication channels between the U.S. and Russia only deepens concerns.
What Happens Next?
As the world watches the calendar inch closer to August 8, all attention is focused on how the Kremlin will respond to Trump’s ultimatum. Will Putin de-escalate, or will the world be dragged further into a dangerous spiral?
India, China, and other global powers are navigating a delicate balance, trying to safeguard their interests without alienating either superpower. But one thing is clear: the global order is shifting, and the return of arms races and geopolitical power plays might just be the new normal.
For now, deterrence—not diplomacy—is once again defining global security.
