In a chilling revelation, Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) and the country’s armed forces have issued a comprehensive assessment suggesting that Russia is actively preparing for a large-scale confrontation with NATO. The report, shared by major German media outlets including Bild, Süddeutsche Zeitung, WDR, and NDR, indicates that the Kremlin views the West not merely as a competitor but as a “systemic enemy” and is ready to employ military force to achieve its imperialist objectives.
According to the intelligence assessment, Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to be content with achieving dominance over Ukraine alone. The BND warns that by the end of this decade, Russia will likely possess the military capacity necessary to wage a “large-scale conventional war” against NATO. Despite sustaining significant battlefield losses and facing Western sanctions, Russia’s military industry has adapted and is now producing more arms and equipment than needed solely for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Putin Eyes NATO Beyond Ukraine
One of the most alarming findings is that Putin may not wait until full preparedness before testing NATO’s resolve. The Lithuanian Intelligence Service (VSD) has also observed signs suggesting Russia could consider limited military actions against one or more NATO countries to assess whether the alliance is willing to enforce Article 5, its collective defense clause. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently reinforced that any attack on Poland or another NATO member would prompt a devastating response.
The BND highlights that although a substantial portion—up to three-quarters—of Russia’s troops and equipment from its Baltic border regions are currently engaged in Ukraine, Russia’s air force and navy remain fully combat-ready. German intelligence is concerned that once the war in Ukraine concludes or stabilizes, these forces could be swiftly redirected back to the NATO border regions.
Rapid Military Expansion Underway
Russia’s military expansion is accelerating at an unprecedented pace. The Kremlin has set a target of increasing its armed forces to 1.5 million troops by 2026. Military units positioned near NATO borders are expected to see a 30-50% increase in personnel, weapons, and equipment compared to 2022 levels.
Equally concerning is Russia’s ballooning military budget. Intelligence reports reveal that by 2025, Russian military spending will surge to nearly €120 billion, representing over 6% of Russia’s GDP. In comparison, this is almost a fourfold increase from the budget allocated for defense in 2021. The sharp rise in military funding demonstrates Putin’s long-term commitment to achieving his strategic military goals regardless of the economic burden.
NATO Remains on High Alert
The intelligence shared by Germany has sent shockwaves through NATO capitals, with policymakers increasingly vocal about the need to bolster defense capabilities. Many experts argue that NATO must take these warnings seriously and significantly reinforce the eastern flank. As Russia restructures its military and shifts its economic priorities to sustain this buildup, the threat of confrontation could gradually become reality rather than mere speculation.
Germany’s report also coincides with warnings from other NATO members, including Lithuania and Poland, both of which have repeatedly called attention to Russia’s aggressive posture. NATO countries are now accelerating their defense planning, military procurement, and joint exercises to prepare for all scenarios.
While Russia may not yet be ready for a full-scale invasion of NATO, the signs of preparation are unmistakable. The Kremlin’s increasing military might, strategic patience, and willingness to test Western resolve could define the security landscape of Europe for years to come.
