April 10, 2025 – Tata Consultancy Services Ltd (TCS), India’s largest IT exporter, is set to unveil its March quarter (Q4 FY25) results after market hours today, at 3:30 PM, with a press conference at 5:30 PM, followed by an analyst call at 7 PM. While the K Krithivasan-led company traditionally avoids offering formal guidance, investors and analysts will be looking for subtle cues regarding FY26 business momentum—especially in light of the escalating US tariff tensions and macroeconomic challenges.
What Street Expects from TCS Q4
Analysts are bracing for a muted performance this quarter. HDFC Institutional Equities projects that TCS will report a 1.1% year-on-year (YoY) rise in adjusted profit to ₹12,570 crore, driven by a 5.9% growth in revenue to ₹64,859 crore. The Ebit margin, however, is likely to dip by 110 basis points YoY to 24.9%, signaling rising cost pressures.
Meanwhile, Nirmal Bang foresees flat earnings at ₹12,432 crore, citing strong deal wins but weak revenue conversion. They expect Q4 deal wins to hover around $10–11 billion, reflecting a slowdown compared to the $13.2 billion wins seen a year earlier. “While we expect BFSI to be a key growth driver, sectors like manufacturing, retail, and healthcare may continue to lag,” the brokerage said.
Kotak: Weak Margins, US Uncertainty Loom Large
Kotak Institutional Equities noted that while the depreciation of the rupee typically provides a margin boost, those gains are likely to be offset by higher promotion costs and continued investment in GenAI and automation initiatives. It expects deal wins to fall slightly short, at $11 billion, and highlighted the critical impact of the US slowdown and tariff uncertainties on TCS’s outlook.
“The focus of investors will be on how tariffs and recent US macroeconomic deterioration are influencing client demand—especially in discretionary areas like retail, logistics, and manufacturing,” Kotak noted. Analysts are also expected to question leadership on any major project cancellations or delays since January 2025, and how that could affect FY26 revenue visibility.
GenAI Drives Pricing Shifts, Cost Optimization
Across the board, analysts agree that the IT services landscape is shifting, with deal activity increasingly focused on cost-optimization and takeout deals. Enterprises are beginning to renegotiate pricing as they integrate GenAI efficiencies into their operations. As GenAI and automation mature, they’re no longer simply a buzzword—they’re reshaping deal structures and billing models for service providers like TCS.
TCS Dividend Watch: Final Payout on the Cards?
Investors will also be watching for the TCS board’s final dividend recommendation for FY25. So far this fiscal, the company has declared:
Q1 FY25: ₹10 per share
Q2 FY25: ₹10 per share
Q3 FY25: ₹10 per share + ₹66 special dividend
In FY24, TCS had paid a total dividend of ₹73 per share, amounting to ₹16,290 crore. A similar payout this year would reaffirm TCS’s position as a reliable dividend stock amidst market volatility.
Tariff Risks: Why They Matter to Indian IT
The ongoing tariff war between the US and its trade partners could be a dark cloud on the horizon. According to BNP Paribas analyst Kumar Rakesh, the Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) and Retail verticals are already seeing signs of pressure. If the tariff war continues to escalate, it could spill over into manufacturing, logistics, and broader discretionary spending—all vital segments for Indian IT majors.
