April 30, 2025 | Mumbai — Gold and silver prices opened lower on the auspicious occasion of Akshaya Tritiya 2025, a day traditionally marked by strong demand for precious metals in India. However, early trading trends at the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) suggest a bout of profit-taking, even as long-term sentiment remains firmly bullish.
Gold June futures at MCX kicked off the day at Rs 95,208 per 10 grams, reflecting a decline of 0.4% or Rs 384, as investors opted to book profits after a stellar rally over the past few months. Similarly, silver July futures began trading at Rs 97,292 per kilogram, down by Rs 826 or 0.84%.
Despite today’s mild correction, gold has delivered impressive returns of nearly 25% in the first four months of 2025, bolstered by economic uncertainty, inflation concerns, and robust safe-haven demand. Investors who bought gold on last year’s Akshaya Tritiya have seen returns exceeding 31%, according to Deveya Gaglani, Senior Research Analyst for Commodities at Axis Securities.
Mixed Performance on Global Cues
Tuesday’s domestic trading session witnessed a divergent trend, with gold futures settling at Rs 95,592, down by 0.45%, while silver rebounded slightly to end at Rs 98,118, up 0.42%.
The mixed outcome was largely influenced by global developments, including updates on U.S. trade talks and economic indicators. The U.S. consumer confidence index dipped amid growing concerns over inflation and higher trade tariffs, which failed to boost gold. However, silver saw bargain buying on hopes of renewed U.S.-China trade negotiations.
“The market is treading cautiously as investors await the U.S. GDP data and corporate earnings. Volatility in the U.S. Dollar Index, which is currently near 99.30, and upcoming macroeconomic data will likely dictate price movements,” said Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research.
Technical Outlook: Volatility Ahead
According to Jain, gold prices are expected to remain volatile this week, with support pegged at Rs 95,000–94,400 and resistance around Rs 96,040–96,650. Silver, on the other hand, has support levels near Rs 97,000–96,650, while resistance is seen at Rs 98,500–99,200.
He advises silver traders to buy on dips near Rs 97,000 with a stop loss at Rs 96,350, aiming for a short-term upside toward Rs 99,200.
In the international market, gold is expected to hold above $3,200 per troy ounce, while silver may stabilize around $31.40, if current trends continue.
Strategy for Gold Investors
While today’s correction might concern short-term traders, experts maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook. Deveya Gaglani suggests staggered buying during 5–10% price corrections.
“At these record-high levels, the risk-reward ratio is not favorable. However, if prices manage to hold above Rs 100,000, we could potentially see gold hitting Rs 110,000 by next Akshaya Tritiya,” Gaglani noted.
He also pointed out the possibility of price consolidation near Rs 87,000 in case of any downturn in global or domestic triggers.
Sentiment vs. Reality
Akshaya Tritiya typically sees a spike in gold buying as it is considered auspicious for wealth and prosperity. But this year, soaring prices and investor caution seem to have led to a more measured approach. Still, strong long-term fundamentals such as central bank buying (including RBI), inflation hedging, and geopolitical uncertainties continue to support gold’s uptrend.
With the Reserve Bank of India increasing its gold reserves and global demand staying resilient, the long-term outlook for both gold and silver remains bullish. Investors are advised to stay informed and adopt disciplined entry strategies, especially given the volatility in play.
